Netanyahu Faces Coalition Gridlock as Window for Iran Strike Opens

Israel’s recent election produced a stronger result for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu than projected, yet his bloc remains short of a governing majority. This stalemate complicates the path to forming a new government and may influence the timing of military operations against Iran.

Netanyahu had considered resuming airstrikes on Tehran in recent weeks. Opposition from President Donald Trump and IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir initially restrained those plans. Trump objected to conflict before the US midterm elections scheduled for November 3, while Zamir opposed action before the Israeli vote. With the election concluded, those specific temporal objections have expired.

Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, failed to secure the head-to-head victory polls had predicted. Consequently, his ally Avigdor Liberman will not begin serious coalition negotiations until Friday, when final results are confirmed. Liberman faces a choice between partnering with Israeli-Arab parties, joining Netanyahu, or triggering a second election. All three paths require lengthy negotiations over policy and cabinet posts, a process that typically spans weeks or months. This timeline exceeds the four-day gap between Friday and the US midterms, leaving Netanyahu free to act if Trump desires or permits a strike.

Zamir supports an attack only if Iran prepares to strike Israel, if the US restarts the war with full support, or if Iran rapidly rebuilds its threat capabilities. He views the current situation as stable because US-Israeli strikes in early and mid-2026 set back Tehran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Zamir is not rushing toward a new engagement, though nothing legally bars one.

Trump remains the primary constraint on Netanyahu. The Iran conflict has negatively impacted Trump and the Republican Party in polls, motivating a pause before the midterms. After the election, Trump will face fewer political restrictions regarding a third term. However, many of his senior advisers oppose a return to war, noting that Iran has resisted capitulation since February and that previous ceasefires have failed to stop Tehran’s firing.

If a strike proceeds, it would align with Netanyahu’s political interests. A war would shift national focus away from coalition bargaining and the contentious issues of October 7 and Haredi military service. This distraction could make Eisenkot’s camp more receptive to a deal with Netanyahu. Conversely, Trump may continue to apply economic pressure or wait for Iran to offer a nuclear deal, which would delay any military action.