Israeli Leaders Face Stalemate After Vote

Israel’s recent election has left the country in a political impasse, with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, holding a clear path to power. The final results show opposition parties winning more seats than Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc, yet Eisenkot lacks the votes needed to govern without the support of predominantly Arab parties, a partnership he largely rejected during the campaign.

The Likud party, led by Netanyahu, secured the highest number of votes, but his coalition of right-wing, far-right, and ultra-Orthodox parties falls short of the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff, faces a similar hurdle. His center-right bloc cannot reach a governing majority without the Arab-led parties, which represent 21% of the population and generally refer to themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel. Eisenkot has argued that these parties’ positions on Hamas and the Gaza war make a joint government difficult, noting that some have refused to endorse the military goal of eliminating Hamas or condemn it as a terrorist organization.

In the coming days, Israel’s president will meet with every elected party leader to determine who should attempt to form a government. The president is not obligated to choose the leader of the largest party but will select the candidate most likely to assemble a coalition. That candidate will have 28 days to secure the support of at least 61 lawmakers, with the possibility of a 14-day extension. Based on the results, Eisenkot is likely to receive more recommendations from newly elected lawmakers, though his relative inexperience in politics remains a factor in the negotiations.

Several potential outcomes exist for breaking the deadlock. One option is a unity government pairing Netanyahu and Eisenkot, a structure reported by Israeli and U.S. media to be favored by President Trump, though NPR has not independently confirmed this preference. Such a coalition would likely include moderate parties from the political center and right, potentially aiding cooperation with the Trump administration on regional issues like Gaza reconstruction and Saudi normalization. However, Eisenkot has pledged not to serve under Netanyahu, and the two must resolve questions about leadership rotation.

Another possibility is an Eisenkot-led government supported by Arab parties from outside the coalition, which would command over 67 seats. This arrangement remains unlikely given Eisenkot’s campaign promises. If no coalition forms, Israel may face another election, a scenario Netanyahu might favor if Arab turnout declines or liberal overseas voters do not return. Alternatively, lawmakers could defect between camps, though Netanyahu would need roughly eight defectors and Eisenkot about 13 to reach a majority without Arab support.

During the stalemate, the opposition may advance legislation to weaken Netanyahu’s hold on power. Eisenkot’s bloc is considering replacing the Knesset speaker to control the legislative agenda and passing a state commission of inquiry into the failures preceding the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack. They also aim to reverse recent laws that critics say weakened judicial independence. These moves would allow opponents to exercise significant parliamentary power while negotiations continue.

A renewed conflict with Iran could complicate these negotiations. In his election night speech, Netanyahu stated that Israel still must complete its mission against Iran to remove an existential threat. Eisenkot warned against using national security for political gain. Analyst Danny Citrinowicz noted that Netanyahu has an incentive to restart the fighting, as an emergency would increase pressure on Eisenkot to join a unity government, a dynamic similar to the period following the October 7 attack.