Serbia's Student List delays foreign policy shifts for domestic overhaul

Serbia's new government led by the opposition Student List will prioritize domestic reforms before altering its foreign policy, according to regional analysts. The political shift follows Sunday's election, which ended the fourteen year rule of Aleksandar Vucic and his Serbian Progressive Party. As Belgrade prepares for December presidential elections, international observers are watching for signs of a pivot, though experts warn that internal consolidation will take immediate priority.

The transition marks a break from the nationalist rhetoric that defined Vucic's tenure. Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad, stated that questions regarding relations with neighbors will not be on the agenda immediately. The new authorities must first tackle domestic problems, including a system that Popov said captured all democratic institutions. Issues in the judiciary, prosecution service, police, and media sector require attention before the government addresses regional ties.

Popov described the current state of regional relations as frayed. He noted that relations with Croatia are marked by frequent sharp words, while ties with Montenegro remain disrupted and issues with Bosnia and Herzegovina are unresolved. During recent mass protests, Vucic accused Zagreb of organizing a color revolution. Popov argued that Zagreb and Belgrade often functioned on the production of internal and external enemies, a dynamic that hindered cooperation despite a quiet convergence on the structure of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The new government's task will be to repair these damaged ties, Popov said. He noted that the EU will not accept a country without good neighborly relations, and the previous government had sabotaged integration efforts. He expressed hope that a government led by experts and civic leaders will work toward stabilizing the region and reviving Serbia's hopes of joining the European Union.

Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer in foreign policy at King's College London, predicted that foreign policy will transform the least under the forthcoming changes. He stated that many international and domestic structures shaping Serbian foreign policy will remain in place. Moscow never fully trusted Vucic but viewed him as the devil they knew. Russian influence will take a blow with the end of uncritical glorification in Vucic-controlled media, but the new government is unlikely to adopt a hawkish stance overnight.

Vuksanovic asserted that Serbian interests can continue to be served by ties with Russia. The country still needs preferential gas prices, and the Kosovo dispute remains unresolved. He predicted that Serbia will maintain its policy of not recognizing the annexation of Crimea and Donbas, though a question mark remains over ammunition deliveries to Ukraine. The opposition viewed Vucic's weapons sales to Kyiv as a cynical ploy to buy Western tolerance for his domestic rule.

Bosko Jaksic, a foreign policy analyst, said that ties with Israel will not be severed but will face scrutiny. The new government will re-examine newly concluded contracts, primarily those concerning Serbian ammunition exports to Israel and Israeli surveillance equipment exports to Serbia. Jaksic noted that Netanyahu's government has lost another authoritarian nationalist ally in Europe after Viktor Orban's removal in Hungary earlier this year. He added that how Israel positions itself toward the new authorities in Belgrade depends largely on the outcome of Israel's own elections.

Jaksic emphasized that Serbia's foreign policy will inevitably undergo a review. He suggested that the policy of sitting on multiple chairs, which brought Serbia more harm than good, will certainly be re-evaluated. It is realistic to expect Belgrade to strengthen ties with the EU. The international community should expect a period of intense internal reform rather than sudden geopolitical realignments.