120 Knesset seats up for grabs

Israelis cast ballots Tuesday in a Knesset election where polls indicate neither the right-wing bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor the opposing change bloc will secure a majority of the 120 seats. The narrow margins predicted by analysts suggest the vote could result in a stalemate, forcing protracted negotiations or a potential repeat election. Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, described an indecisive outcome as the most likely result of the contest.

This is the first national vote since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks, which Israeli authorities acknowledged as the deadliest in the country's history since 1948. The war continues across multiple fronts, with active combat in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. Netanyahu has advocated for a third round of direct conflict with Iran, a position that forms the core of his campaign message. His opponents argue that the current leadership has failed to ensure security, particularly in the intelligence and military domains.

Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, seeks to rebuild his coalition with ultranationalist and religious parties. His campaign relies on two primary arguments: that only he can form a government without relying on Arab parties, and that he needs additional time to complete military operations against Iran. President Donald Trump offered explicit support for Netanyahu last week, warning that the United States might have to handle the threat from Iran alone if a different leader takes power in Israel.

The change bloc, a diverse alliance of centrist, left, and Arab parties, unites around the goal of removing Netanyahu from office. Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff and leader of the centrist Yashar party, is the front-runner to lead this coalition. Eisenkot lost his son and two nephews in service during the Gaza war and serves as the primary challenger. His party fielded a slate where approximately half of the candidates are women, contrasting with the male-dominated lineup of the Netanyahu coalition.

Eisenkot has criticized Netanyahu for using fear regarding the nuclear threat to maintain power. He promised to launch a state inquiry into the security failures that allowed the October 7 attacks to occur, a move Netanyahu has previously blocked. Uzi Aharoni, a 73-year-old engineer from Tel Aviv, supported Eisenkot, stating that the former general is an honest alternative who will prioritize the public over personal interests.

Voter turnout remains a critical variable, particularly among Arab-Israeli citizens, who comprise about 20 percent of the population. Plesner noted that higher Arab participation makes it more difficult for Netanyahu to form a governing coalition. Jehad Abomoch, a cafe owner in Baqa al Gharbiya, said many Arab voters are motivated to stop Netanyahu from allying with far-right partners who have implemented policies affecting their communities over the past four years.

Two new parties focused on the conscription of ultra-Orthodox men for military service are also competing. Polls show both hovering near the threshold needed to enter the Knesset. Their entry could disrupt the traditional coalition math by challenging Netanyahu's alliance with religious parties. If neither bloc wins a clear majority, the country faces several potential paths, including a minority government or new elections.

Israeli politics has seen multiple deadlocks recently, with five elections held between 2019 and 2022 due to an inability to form stable coalitions. Plesner warned that if politicians stick strictly to their campaign promises and refuse to switch sides, the country may face another election. The results of Tuesday's vote will determine whether Israel enters another period of coalition negotiations or returns to the polls.