Likud members disagree on Tuesday odds as nonprofits push voter turnout

Israeli voters will cast ballots on Tuesday, October 27, in an election that determines the fate of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government. Inside Likud, the party currently holding power, opinions are divided regarding the likely outcome.

A source within the party described a rift between members who are confident in victory and those who fear a surge in turnout among Netanyahu's opponents. The source noted that some members rely heavily on the forecasts of Shlomo Filber, the director of the party's internal polling. "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home," the source said, referring to Filber. "It's one or the other."

The primary source of anxiety for Likud officials is the activity of various organizations and nonprofits. Party sources claim these groups are directing substantial funds toward getting out the vote for the opposition. This effort reportedly operated throughout the campaign period without direct funding from any single political party. Activities included social media drives, the placement of signs, field events, transportation for Arab voters, and initiatives to bring Israelis living abroad back to vote.

One Likud official labeled the movement "the nonprofits affair on steroids." The official argued that these groups provide a wide support network for anti-Netanyahu parties that bypasses standard party financing rules. However, the sources did not provide documentation to verify the specific funding amounts or prove that the activities violated the law.

Likud has also criticized the Central Elections Committee. The party claims the committee focused too much on enforcing limits for campaign videos and public resource usage while paying insufficient attention to the work of these independent organizations.

On the ground, Likud is preparing a major operation for Election Day despite restrictions on gathering data from polling stations. The party aims to prevent right-wing votes from shifting to smaller slates. Efforts to convince Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, who leads the People of Israel party, to drop out of the race failed. Winter is a former commander of the Givati Brigade. Negotiations involved Rabbi Eli Sadan, who later issued a statement supporting Winter.

Likud is also seeking support from other right-wing lists, including the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. The Ahi party, led by Rabbi Abergel, has already withdrawn from the race following talks with Likud. During those discussions, the parties considered legislation that would allow the party to name a deputy minister. A survey released days before the vote indicated that nearly one-third of Israeli voters remained undecided.