US Official Projects 10 Security Council Votes for Orban UN Bid

A senior US State Department official estimated that former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban could secure up to 10 votes among the 15 members of the UN Security Council if he formally enters the race for secretary-general. The official said eight members would 'easily' support the former leader, creating a potential majority that Washington believes it can lock in with the backing of Russia and China.

The push began when US officials discussed their desired profile for the next UN chief. They reportedly sought 'someone like Orban,' a description that found agreement among Chinese and Russian counterparts. This alignment suggests a joint candidate backed by the three major powers. However, Orban has not yet made a final decision. He expressed interest in the role but voiced reservations tied to his identity as a nationalist politician.

The timeline for any official move remains fluid. One source familiar with the initiative said that Trump and Vice President JD Vance are expected to back Orban if he runs. They plan to wait for a public announcement until after the US midterm elections. This delay allows the White House to gauge domestic political sentiment before endorsing a controversial international figure.

The candidacy faces hurdles with the other permanent members. The United Kingdom and France hold veto power and have not taken an official stance. The report suggests they might not block a candidate who commands a council majority and the support of the other three permanent members, but their positions remain a key question in the negotiations.

Supporters in Washington argue Orban offers a different type of leadership than the current field. An official from another country noted that most declared candidates come from international bureaucracy or quiet diplomacy. In contrast, Orban is a political leader accustomed to wielding power. The US official described him as the 'dream candidate for MAGA conservatives' due to his stance on immigration and his clashes with European institutions.

Critics, however, point to his record. The report raised concerns that his appointment could turn the post into a defender of Russian President Vladimir Putin and other authoritarian leaders. His close ties to Moscow and Beijing, along with his history in Hungary, would likely face intense scrutiny during the selection process.

The current competitive landscape includes Emirati diplomat Lana Nusseibeh, who entered the race last week. She is expected to answer questions from Security Council members on Tuesday. This will precede an informal straw poll on Wednesday designed to gauge support as members work toward a consensus nominee. It is not yet clear if Orban's name will appear on that poll, and additional candidates could still enter the field.

Antonio Guterres's term as secretary-general ends on December 31. The push for Orban currently rests on discussions and assessments from sources cited in recent reports. There has been no official announcement of a candidacy, nor is there public confirmation that the US, Russia, and China have formally aligned their support.