Senate Control Hinges on Seven Tight Races, Not House Margins

Vote counting begins Tuesday night, but the determination of Senate control will likely take days or weeks. The House race features wider margins, meaning leadership there may become clear sooner. In contrast, the Senate is defined by tight margins in seven states. Two additional states use ranked-choice voting, a method that prolongs the count. Control of the Senate could come down to a single seat, whereas the House outcome is less likely to hinge on one district.

The first results arrive at 7 p.m. Eastern Time, when polls close in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Virginia, and Vermont. Georgia’s Senate race appears settled, with Democrat Jon Ossoff expected to defeat Republican Mike Collins. The gubernatorial contest is tighter, pitting billionaire Rick Jackson against former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger noted that new laws require counties to report results within an hour of polls closing, addressing past delays.

South Carolina presents an unexpectedly tight Senate race. Senator Darline Graham, who was appointed after the death of her brother Lindsey Graham, faces Democrat Annie Andrews. National polls indicate a toss-up in this heavily Republican state, while the Cook Political Report gives Republicans the advantage.

At 7:30 p.m., polls close in North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia. North Carolina’s Senate seat is the most likely Democratic flip. Former Governor Roy Cooper challenges Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman and close Trump ally. Democrats last won a Senate seat in the state in 2008. Losing this race would make a Democratic majority much less likely.

Ohio offers another of the seven tight Senate races. Republican Senator Jon Husted and former Democrat Sherrod Brown are deadlocked. Ohio has shifted from a swing state to a solidly Republican one in the last decade. The gubernatorial race features Democrat Amy Acton leading Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in the polls. Ramaswamy recently ran an attack ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother, which drew significant blowback that could hurt both Ramaswamy and Husted.

By 8 p.m., polls are closed in more than half the country, including Florida, Pennsylvania, and Maine. Florida’s governor’s race favors Republican Byron Donalds over Democrat David Jolly, though Donalds holds only a slight poll advantage. The state redrew its congressional maps before this election, making it a key test. The Cook Political Report lists seven competitive House seats in Florida, two of which are toss-ups. Pennsylvania had four competitive House races earlier in the cycle, but three now lean toward Democrats.

In Maine, incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins faces a tough race against late-entry Democrat Troy Jackson. This is the only state where a Republican holds a Senate seat despite the state voting for Kamala Harris in 2024. At 9 p.m., polls close in 15 states, including Arizona, Iowa, Michigan, and Texas. These states host competitive Senate races that could decide chamber control. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico challenges Republican Ken Paxton for governor, a race where Talarico may take an early lead from mail-in ballots.

Michigan’s governor’s race between Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers remains a toss-up. Republicans spent heavily on ads targeting El-Sayed’s faith, while he emphasized his personal story. The outcome will signal whether the progressive wing gains ground. Meanwhile, Iowa’s open Senate race is close, with Republican Ashley Hinson facing Democrat Josh Turek. Three of Iowa’s four Republican-held congressional seats are competitive, with two leaning toward Democrats.